Climate Change and the Tanzanian Environment
Tanzania’s climate ranges from tropical to temperate, with altitudinal variation being responsible for the extremes. The average precipitation is 1,042mm and temperatures range between 17C – 27 C. Although localised rainfall is complex, the country has two distinct regimes, Bi-modal in northern Tanzania, with long rains between March – May (Masika) and short rains between October – December (Vuli), and a single rainfall between November – April in the south of the country.
What does climate change actually mean for Tanzania? The most detailed analysis has been carried out by the OECD using separate modals (MAGICC / SCENGEN). They all project a temperature rise of 2.2º C by 2100 with higher increases (2.6ºC) over June, July and August. But what does that mean? Some areas of northern Tanzania will get wetter (between 5% - 45% wetter), whilst others, especially in the south will experience severe reductions in rainfall (up to 10%), this would make the central, western and southern part of the country unsustainable for agricultural production (Development and Climate Change in Tanzania: Focus on Mount Kilimanjaro).
To learn more on how climate change affects other areas of Tanzania please see Climate Change Effects on Tanzania.
Kilimanjaro deserves special mention and not just because of the now famous melting glacier; Kilimanjaro is a critical humidifier in otherwise dry country, and its forests crucial as a catchment for the water that flows into one of Tanzania’s major rivers, the Pangani. As a result of a increasingly drier and warmer climate, precipitation has decreased on Kilimanjaro by 30% in recent years (Hemp, 2006) and the ice cap is estimated to be non permanent by the year 2020 (OECD, 2005).
Kilimanjaro also has an exceptionally varied ecosystem with a range of fauna, mammals and flora; as of 2005, 22% of Tanzania’s vascular plants were in the Kilimanjaro vicinity, and 140 mammalian species reside there along with 179 highland bird species and 88 species of reptiles. All of these species will be at risk due to the changing landscape and distribution pattern which have shifted due to weather patterns, decreased rainfall and population growth.
With a shift to a generally drier climate, and a greater human impact, fire has and will continue to play a huge role in promoting a yet drier overall environment. Over the last 100 years, Kilimanjaro has lost 300 km² of high altitude forest and the upper closed forest was lowered by 900m (Hemp, 2006). Over the last 30 years, Kilimanjaro has lost 10% of its forest cover due to fire (OECD, 2005).
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